The Madness of Emperor Donald

We’ve achieved regime change. The war has been won. [If so, this was achieved not by the USA but by Israel on Day 1, when it killed 2 or 3 layers of the Iranian leadership. The last 3 weeks have achieved nothing but the (predicted) closure of the Hormuz Strait and all the economic/financial consequences of that].

The War Itself

Points from Naked Capitalism’s latest review:-

• Iran is not willing to negotiate with the untrustworthy tag team of the US and Israel.
• The 5-day pause has accomplished nothing save for giving Trump the opportunity to talk Mr. Market into a more cheery mood (and give insiders the chance to again make big bucks).
• The fundamentals keep getting worse as Trump dithers. The slow bleeding out of the global economy gets worse the longer Strait of Hormuz traffic remains throttled down to a meager level. 
• The LNG cliff of the end of the Qatar supply will hit in 10 days or so; the reverberations from that may shake investors out of their somnolence. Mind you, getting traffic moving through the Strait of Hormuz won’t remedy that shortfall but it would at least reduce other pressure.
• It’s not just the real economy that is deteriorating. So too are the dynamics among the key actors. As Trump appears to yet again try to head-fake the Iranians with a micro-climbdown, the belligerents continue to play chicken with attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure.
• The plan to land forces is moving ahead.
• As the US is moving up the escalation ladder, experts warn of nuclear war risk.
• Iran’s demands for a ceasefire are increasing.
• [Ever the blackmailer]Trump is reported to be demanding $5 trillion from the Gulf States if they want this war to continue. And, if they want it to stop, they must pay $2.5 trillion for what has been accomplished already.
• The press is giving more attention to the serious and mounting real economy harms of this conflict. 
• Meanwhile, Iran is selling a lot more oil than it did before it was attacked, at much higher prices.

The Blame Game

Is Trump throwing Hegseth under the proverbial, as the latest scapegoat for failure?

Peace in Our Time?

An end to Trump’s dithering? Or just the beginning?

The US is reported to have sent a 15-point ceasefire plan to Iran, via Pakistan –  reflecting the Trump administration’s eagerness to find an offramp from the conflict as it grapples with its economic fallout. [Little wonder that some argue that Iran is winning the war and has the stronger hand in any pace negotiations].

Points:-

• It’s not clear if Israel is on board with the proposal. Israeli officials, who have been pushing for Trump to continue the war, were reported to be surprised by the submission of the plan.
• For now, there is no indication that the war will let up imminently; Israeli officials have said they expect it to continue for weeks.
• Iran may have trouble delivering a quick response. Senior Iranians have been struggling to communicate internally and they worry that Israel could bomb them if they meet in person.
• The eagerness of the White House to negotiate suggests that Trump would be willing to leave the current regime in place, at least for now, albeit in a weakened and more pliant state. He and Netanyahu have vacillated on whether their demands for the war included regime change.

Fingers and toes crossed . . .